Iranian mines confirmed in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed the probability of the UK deploying warships by April 30 to 10% YES, up from 8% a day ago.
Market reaction
The 10% odds represent a 2-point rise driven by concerns over safe passage through the oil chokepoint. The market has $28,034 in daily face value and $2,616 in actual USDC traded. Liquidity is decent, with $1,088 needed to move the price 5 points, which suggests some institutional participation.
Why it matters
Mine warfare lets Iran disrupt global oil traffic without direct military confrontation. That increases the likelihood of countries, particularly the UK, stepping in to keep shipping lanes open. A YES share priced at 10¢ offers a 10x return if the UK commits to sending warships.
What to watch
The market could move from 10% to 15% on a confirmed UK Ministry of Defence statement, any allied naval deployment announcements, or further escalation in the strait. Watch for official MoD communications or reports of allied minesweeping operations in the coming days.
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How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 6 12| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 10% | — | — | Trade → |