Israeli sources expect President Trump to push for a ceasefire with Hezbollah. The odds of an Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 are now at 83.9% YES, up from 41% a week ago.
The market for a ceasefire by April 30 sits at 71.5% YES, up from 32% a week ago. The April 15 market is effectively dead at 3.6% YES. Traders see the most movement in the April 15 to April 30 window, with a 68-point jump across those 15 days, suggesting they expect a catalyst soon.
Daily trading volume for the ceasefire markets is $1,085,480 in actual USDC. A notable price move was a 15-point spike in the April 30 market at 1:18 PM. It takes $16,891 to move the June market 5 points, indicating solid depth. The April market is more sensitive, requiring just $3,186 for the same move, which points to potential volatility.
Trump’s influence could push odds higher, but caution is warranted. A YES share at 69.6¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 1.39x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe Trump’s pressure results in concrete action within 15 days. Traders are pricing in diplomatic moves, but without specifics on what those moves look like, this remains speculative.
Watch for official statements from Netanyahu or Hezbollah’s leadership. Any confirmation of talks or ceasefire terms would move these markets fast.
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Israel X Hezbollah Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 83.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 71.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 3.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 29.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 60.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 49.5% | — | — | Trade → |