Trump announced China agreed not to send weapons to Iran, while Iran’s military warned that continued port blockades violate the ceasefire. The odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April are at 36.5% YES.
The Iranian oil sanction relief market is trading at 36.5%, up slightly from 36% yesterday. Trump’s statements about Chinese cooperation on Iran pushed odds marginally higher, but the move was small, and the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty about whether any of this translates to actual sanction relief.
The WTI Crude Oil market is adjacent here. If China actually stops facilitating Iranian arms flows and negotiations continue, oil price pressure could ease, though no significant moves have shown up yet. The possibility of reduced conflict risk is working against expectations of oil hitting $160 by April.
Trading activity shows $2,735 in daily USDC volume, with a $422 cost to move the market 5 points. The largest single move was a 2-point drop from 38% to 36% at 2:26 PM. Liquidity is moderate; individual trades of meaningful size can shift odds noticeably.
Trump’s claim about China not sending arms could create space for easing tensions, but Iran’s objection to the blockade keeps the situation unstable. At 36.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump agrees to sanction relief in April, a potential 2.74x return. The trade comes down to whether diplomatic signals turn into actual policy changes before April ends, weighed against the risk of military escalation.
Watch for any confirmation of China’s alleged agreement or changes in Iran’s military posture. Trump’s next public statement, whether a social media post or press conference, could move these odds sharply.
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