Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari has introduced Articles of Impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, citing violations of his oath and war crimes in the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. The odds of a U.S. declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, sit at 8% YES, up from 7% a week ago.
Market reaction
The impeachment articles could reduce the likelihood of an official war declaration by signaling Congressional pushback on military escalation. The market for a U.S. declaration of war on Iran by April 30, 2026 remains at 1% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago.
Why it matters
The spread between the April and December markets shows traders expect no immediate legislative action. The 7-point gap between April 30 and December 31 suggests traders see a possible shift mid-year as political conditions change. The December market’s 8% YES reflects low confidence in Congressional appetite for war.
Market liquidity is thin: $278 in USDC traded in the last 24 hours. It would take $1,958 to move the December market by 5 points. The small capital required to shift pricing means current levels are fragile.
What to watch
Ansari’s move matters but lacks broad Congressional backing so far, and these impeachment articles alone are unlikely to move war odds much. At 8¢, a YES share pays $1 if war is declared by year-end, a 12.5x return. Buying YES here requires confidence in a major political shift that doesn’t currently have the votes.
Watch for statements from other members of Congress and any shifts in public opinion on Iran. The next Defense Department briefing could clarify policy direction and move these markets.
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Will The Us Officially Declare War On Iran| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 16.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
