Bitcoin price above $60,000 by April 19 sits at 99.6% YES on Polymarket, as a two-week ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict and falling oil prices keep risk appetite high.
Market reaction
Liquidity in the Bitcoin markets is solid, with $40,599 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours. The order book requires $64,698 to shift the odds by 5 points, meaning the market can absorb large trades without significant price movement. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a dip from 100% to 99.6%, likely from minor profit-taking. The Bitcoin price for April 18 contract trades at 99.2% YES.
Why it matters
Easing geopolitical tensions and lower oil prices have historically benefited risk assets like Bitcoin. Iran is preparing for a second round of talks, and President Trump has hinted at resuming negotiations in Pakistan. At 99.6¢ for a YES share, the payout is near-certain, and the market is pricing in almost no downside risk to Bitcoin staying above $60,000 through April 19.
What to watch
Any announcements from President Trump on resuming talks, or shifts in Iran’s negotiation stance, could move these contracts. A breakdown in the ceasefire or a spike in oil prices would be the main catalysts for downside movement at this point.
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Xrp Above On April 19| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 18 | 99.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 99.6% | — | — | Trade → |
