Iran secretly used a Chinese spy satellite to target US military bases in the Middle East. The odds of a US-Iran peace deal by April 22 sit at 20% YES.
The peace deal market rose from 12% a week ago, but this satellite revelation could reverse that trend. April 30 is at 37.5% YES, with increased skepticism about imminent peace. The gap between April 30 and May 31 odds suggests traders expect significant developments within the next month.
With $346,662 in daily USDC volume, the April 22 market is relatively liquid, yet $15,164 can shift the odds by 5 points. This points to potential volatility as traders process Iran’s enhanced targeting capabilities. The largest move was an 8-point drop, showing how sensitive this market is to geopolitical events.
Iran’s use of Chinese satellite technology signals a deepening military relationship between Beijing and Tehran, which directly complicates US diplomatic efforts. A YES share at 20¢ pays $1 if a peace deal occurs by April 22, a 5x return. That outcome requires rapid diplomatic breakthroughs that look unlikely given this week’s news.
Watch for statements from President Trump or the Iranian Foreign Ministry. Any signal of resumed talks or third-party mediation would move this market fast.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 20.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 37.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 57.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 68.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
