The IMF projects negative growth for Iran in 2026 due to the ongoing war, with Polymarket pricing Kharg Island not being under Iranian control by June 30 at 14.5% YES.
Market reaction
The June 30 market sits at 14.5% YES, up from lower odds in previous weeks. The May 31 market is at 8.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday but down from 16% a week ago. Traders appear to view mid-year as the likeliest window for regime change.
Total 24-hour USDC volume across all sub-markets is $46,807, with the most liquidity in the April 30 market, priced at 1.7% YES. The biggest term structure jump is between April 30 and May 31, which points to traders expecting a catalyst in that window.
Why it matters
The IMF report adds to the economic pressure picture for Iran as the conflict continues. Kharg Island handles the bulk of Iran’s oil exports, so any loss of control there would directly threaten the regime’s revenue base and staying power. At 15¢, a YES share for June 30 pays $1 if Kharg Island leaves Iranian control, a 6.67x return. Traders are pricing a real but limited chance of regime collapse within 76 days.
What to watch
IRGC movements and any direct engagements around Kharg Island are the main variables. The next Pentagon briefing or statements from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council could move these odds sharply.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 14.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
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