Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that Trump tariffs might be reinstated by July following a Supreme Court setback, pushing the odds of Trump visiting China by May 31 to 81.5% YES on Polymarket.
The April 30 sub-market is priced at just 1.2% YES, meaning a visit this month is nearly off the table. The May 31 odds sit at 81.5%, slightly down from 82% a day ago. The June 30 market is at 87.5% YES, pricing in higher confidence for a summer visit.
Combined 24-hour USDC volume was $80,348, with a face value of $257,353. The market can be moved with $6,845 for the April 30 date and $7,866 for May 31, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest single move was a 2-point drop at 2:22 PM yesterday, suggesting traders are still processing Bessent’s comments.
Tariff reinstatement is a credible signal that trade tensions are escalating, which makes a near-term diplomatic visit to China less likely. The report comes via Fox News, a tier-2 source. At 19¢, a YES share for an April 30 visit pays $1 if Trump visits China, a 5.26x return. Traders betting on an early visit would need to believe in a rapid diplomatic breakthrough.
Watch for announcements from the White House or China’s Foreign Ministry regarding summit dates. Specific mentions of a visit or shifts in trade policy rhetoric would move these odds.
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Will Trump Visit China| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 81.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 87.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 17 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
