The White House denied requesting an extension of the ceasefire with Iran, stating that productive talks are ongoing in Pakistan. The US x Iran ceasefire extension market now trades at 71.0% YES, up from 58% a week ago.
The denial has moved several related markets. The US-Iran ceasefire extension market holds at 71.0% YES. The ceasefire breach announcement market sits at 12.0% YES, down from 58% a week ago. The overall ceasefire end market is at 10.5% YES.
Daily USDC volume in the ceasefire extension market is at $169,156. Order book depth is $3,007 to move the price 5 percentage points. The largest recent price move was a 10-point spike at 10:47 AM, showing how reactive this market is to news flow.
The absence of a formal ceasefire request means active hostilities haven’t resumed, but there’s no guarantee of a peaceful extension either. The talks in Pakistan lack a definitive resolution so far. A YES share at 71¢ pays $1 if the ceasefire is extended, a 1.41x return. That bet requires a diplomatic breakthrough within six days.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or the Pakistani government on progress or setbacks. Public comments from President Trump, especially on Truth Social, could move these markets quickly.
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Us X Iran Ceasefire Extended| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 71% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 21 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 12% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 20.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |