Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber announced that former fuel suppliers are negotiating energy deals with Tehran, a development that affects the Polymarket crude oil market where traders price a YES share at 85¢ for crude hitting $90 by end of June.
Market reaction
Traders began reassessing positions after Mokhber’s statement. The crude oil prices by end of June market had seen no volume in the past 24 hours before the announcement, suggesting participants were waiting for new information. The 85¢ YES price reflects high confidence that $90 will be reached, but renewed supply negotiations could push odds down by roughly 15%.
Why it matters
The ongoing Iran conflict has driven global oil prices near $100 per barrel, largely on supply disruption fears. Mokhber’s comments suggest Iran may be using its position to stabilize fuel supplies, which would pressure prices downward. If these negotiations produce results and the Strait of Hormuz remains open and secure, the probability of crude reaching $90 by June’s end drops further. For traders holding YES positions at 85¢, this creates real downside risk. For contrarians who believe increased supply will materialize, the current pricing may offer an entry point on the NO side.
What to watch
Key signals include any formal agreements between Iran and these former suppliers, statements from Natasha Kaneva at J.P. Morgan, and data releases from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Each would clarify whether these negotiations translate into actual supply increases or remain diplomatic posturing.
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 39.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 21.5% | — | — | Trade → |
