Tui Cruises reports two ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The market predicting fewer than 10 ships transiting between April 13 and April 19 sits at 0.4% YES, down from 1% yesterday.
The Tui Cruises transit marks a slight uptick in commercial activity through the Strait during the ongoing 2026 Iran war. The passage suggests selective permissions or temporary de-escalation. The ships transit market now indicates a negligible chance of resolving YES. The market saw a 2-point spike at 4:25 AM as traders responded to the news.
Only $14 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours, and it takes just $12 to move the odds by 5 points. The headline moved the market, but any modest order could swing it further. The largest recent move was the 2-point jump this morning.
The open question is whether this transit represents a real shift toward normalization or an isolated event. Reuters, the source, adds credibility, but the situation is volatile. A YES share currently priced at 0.4¢ pays $1 if fewer than 10 ships transit, a 250x return. To justify buying, you’d need to believe in rapid re-escalation before the period ends.
Watch for announcements from Iran’s PMOIRI or CENTCOM about access or new blockades. Any Iranian or US military maneuvers could swing odds dramatically.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
