Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that US-Israeli efforts against Iran are “not over yet,” and the market on Trump announcing an end to military operations against Iran by March 1 sits at 0% YES.
Netanyahu’s statement signals Israel is prepared for further action, making a diplomatic resolution less likely in the near term. Odds for Trump endorsing an Israeli ceasefire also sit at 0% YES April 30.
Trading volume in these markets is negligible, which points to near-total trader consensus that military operations will continue. With Netanyahu explicitly framing the campaign as ongoing, bets on a rapid resolution carry heavy risk.
Netanyahu’s rhetoric matters because it exposes a gap between Israeli and US priorities. Israel is oriented toward military objectives against Iran, while the US has generally favored diplomatic channels. For traders, this gap makes ongoing conflict more probable than a negotiated settlement.
Watch for new strikes on Iranian targets or any significant escalation, which would reinforce current market pricing. Trump’s next public statements on military operations will also move these odds if they come.
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Israel X Lebanon Diplomatic Meeting| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
