The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump is skeptical of Iran’s Strait of Hormuz proposal. The odds of Trump announcing the lifting of the Hormuz blockade by May 31 have dropped to 58% YES, down from 72% just 24 hours ago.
The report has also hit the diplomatic meetings with Iran by April 30 market, now at 0.7% YES. That’s a collapse from 22% a week ago, as traders have largely priced out any near-term diplomatic engagement.
The Hormuz announcement market is trading $95,253 in daily actual USDC volume, with $8,975 needed to move the price 5 percentage points. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 5-point spike late afternoon, but the overall trend is downward. The diplomatic meetings market is much thinner at just $613 in actual USDC traded daily, suggesting little trader conviction.
For traders, continued skepticism from Trump could push odds lower unless there’s a concrete shift. Buying YES at 58¢ would pay 1.72x, but the market is trending against that bet.
The catalysts to watch: any confirmed meeting between US and Iranian officials, a public statement from the White House indicating progress, or an unexpected Trump announcement. Any of these could reverse the current slide.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 58.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.7% | — | — | Trade → |
