US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that firms servicing Iran’s airlines could face sanctions under Operation “Economic Fury.” The market on Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief by April sits at 3% YES, down from 14% yesterday.
Market reaction
The Trump’s Iranian Demands market dropped to 3% YES from 62% a week ago. The April 30 market shows bearish sentiment across all sub-markets, with traders pricing in almost no chance of a last-minute policy shift.
Why it matters
This market trades $1,944 in real USDC daily, and only $119 is needed to move it 5 points, making it thin and vulnerable to large orders. The largest recent move was an 8-point spike, which points to reactive but fragile liquidity.
Bessent’s warning is consistent with the administration’s maximum pressure approach toward Iran. At 3¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump agrees to relief, a 33x return. But the administration’s current posture makes that outcome unlikely with only days left before the April 30 expiry.
What to watch
Any Trump statements or Treasury Department actions that contradict the current direction. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or sanctions easing would be the clearest signal of a shift.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 2.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 18.5% | — | — | Trade → |
