Trump is receiving regular updates on Iran talks from Pakistani mediators, according to CNN. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market sits at 43.5% YES.
The updates have barely moved expectations for a uranium enrichment agreement. Odds of Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 are at 56.2% YES, up from 35% a day ago. This 14-day window remains volatile, with traders reacting to any signals from Tehran or Washington.
The April 22 peace deal market is flat at 43.5% YES, consistent with skepticism about a deal closing in 6 days. The depth of $16,312 to move 5 points suggests institutional interest but not confidence in near-term resolution.
Iran’s missile capacity, highlighted by US intelligence, complicates the path to any quick agreement. At 56.2% YES, betting $0.39 per share pays $1 if resolved, a 2.55x return. Skepticism holds until concrete disarmament signs emerge.
Watch for announcements from Pakistani mediators or direct statements from Trump or Khamenei. A confirmed second round of talks would be notable. CENTCOM briefings on military posture shifts could also move these markets.
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Iran Agrees To End Enrichment Of Uranium April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 56.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 43.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 62% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 73.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 81.5% | — | — | Trade → |
