Anthropic Labs launched Claude Design, a new tool powered by Claude Opus 4.7, on April 16. The market for “Claude 4.7 released by May 31” sits at 99.9% YES, up from 38% a week ago.
The confirmed release drove odds to near certainty across several date-specific markets. The April 30 market also reads 99.9% YES, leaving traders no room for delay. The April 16 market closed at 99.9% YES, consistent with the actual release date.
The market for release on April 17 dropped to 0.1% YES, again confirming April 16 as the date. That contract moved from 22% to 52% on April 16 before the announcement corrected the speculative spike.
With the release confirmed, volatility in these markets is gone. The June 30 market also sits at 99.9% YES.
Claude Design positions Anthropic as a competitor to Figma and Adobe in design tooling. The market’s move to 99.9% reflects full confidence in Anthropic’s delivery timeline.
For contrarian positions: buying NO at 1¢ pays $1 if any anomaly occurs, though the likelihood is slim unless Anthropic announces a major retraction.
Watch for Anthropic communications about Claude 5. Any official mention could shift trader attention and open new market activity.
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Claude 4pt7 Released| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 17, 2026 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19, 2026 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 21, 2026 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 16, 2026 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 18, 2026 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
