Oil prices dipped as hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire grew, with talks potentially resuming. The Polymarket contract for a ceasefire by April 22 is at 38.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago.
Ceasefire odds show a wide spread across different dates, tracking trader expectations for when a deal might land. The April 22 market increased slightly, but the April 30 market jumped from 17% to 60.5% YES, suggesting traders see better chances of progress by month’s end. The biggest mover is the May 31 market, now at 72.5% YES, up from 31% just a week ago.
Volume confirms genuine interest, with $198,230 in USDC traded daily on the May 31 contract. The order book depth requires $14,900 to move the price 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest single move, a 10-point drop at 5:10 PM, came amid ongoing negotiations.
The potential ceasefire is tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which directly affects global oil supply routes. Oil prices have hovered around $93-98/bbl, and concrete progress could push them lower. A YES share at 15¢ for April 22 pays $1 if it resolves, a potential 6.7x return. That bet requires believing diplomats can close a deal in days.
Watch for statements from Trump and intermediaries from Oman and Qatar. Any announcement of resumed talks or softened rhetoric could shift odds further.
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Us X Iran Ceasefire Extended| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 60.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 72.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 81% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
