The Trump administration has reclassified FDA-approved marijuana products to Schedule III, recognizing their medical use and lower abuse potential. The market for marijuana being rescheduled by December 31 sits at 42.7% YES, down from 62% just 24 hours ago.
The December 31 contract trades at 42.7%. The initial spike following the administration’s move didn’t hold as traders assessed the broader implications. The June 30 market has plummeted to 9.5% YES, showing skepticism about immediate further changes.
The term structure shows a 33-point gap between June and December contracts, suggesting traders expect significant developments after June. With 252 days until the December 31 resolution, that window leaves room for further federal actions or legal challenges.
Actual USDC traded over the last 24 hours was $96,741, with just $775 needed to move the December contract by 5 percentage points. Order books that thin mean room for volatility if new information surfaces. The largest move in the past day was a 16-point drop in the June market, a clear reassessment of near-term prospects.
The reclassification applies only to FDA-approved marijuana products. Recreational marijuana remains Schedule I, and an administrative hearing on broader reclassification is set for June 29. For traders considering a YES bet, a share at 43¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 2.33x return. That bet requires confidence that no significant legal or procedural delays will intervene.
Watch for developments from the DEA, particularly any final rules published or statements from figures like Terrance Cole. The June 29 hearing will determine whether federal policy shifts further.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 42.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
