A Matrixport-linked whale closed long positions in 1,500 BTC ($112.35M) and 120,000 ETH ($286M) across four wallets, netting a $59M profit. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin hitting $60,000 by end of April now trades at 7%, reflecting potential bearish sentiment from the sell-off.
## Market reaction
The Bitcoin price prediction market prices a 7% chance of Bitcoin reaching $60,000 by end of April. Ethereum’s price prediction for April is also under pressure, with the likelihood of it reaching $2,900 within the month weakening. The market predicting ETH will stay above $1,800 on April 16 holds at 99.9% YES, though the whale’s exit could introduce short-term downward pressure on ETH.
## Why it matters
The whale closed these positions alongside $246M in futures liquidations across the broader market. Bitcoin’s term structure shows potential catalysts within the next 14 days. The April 30 deadline for current sub-markets means these contracts are particularly sensitive to volatility in the remaining window.
$59,126 in actual USDC was traded on these Polymarket contracts over the past 24 hours. The largest price move was a 4-point shift, which at this volume level suggests the contracts are sensitive to even moderately sized trades. Movements should be read in the context of that thin liquidity.
## What to watch
At 7¢, a YES share on Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 by April offers a potential 14.3x return if further bearish developments materialize. Watch for upcoming Federal Reserve announcements or macroeconomic data releases, particularly any statements from Jerome Powell. Changes in tone or policy could move these contracts in either direction, as could any significant resistance breach in spot markets.
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Ethereum Above On April 16| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 16 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 17 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
