Bitcoin steady as S&P 500 hits record, but options market isn't buying the peace trade

Crypto's derivatives desks still want downside protection, QCP says, and long-end yields and gold aren't confirming the risk-on move.

What to know:

• Bitcoin neared $75,000 alongside record highs in U.S. equities, as investors reacted to reports of an in-principle U.S.-Iran agreement to extend cease-fire talks beyond April 7.
• Derivatives and options markets are signaling caution despite the spot rally, with negative funding rates, softening open interest and elevated demand for downside protection suggesting a bounce rather than a durable trend change.
• Ether is outperforming bitcoin as the ETH/BTC ratio rebounds from multi-year lows and Ethereum’s on-chain activity and stablecoin supply hit records, raising the stakes for how both tokens trade in the next risk-off session.

Bitcoin climbed to $74,935 in Asian hours Thursday, up 0.7% over 24 hours and 5.4% on the week, as U.S. equities closed at record highs on reports the U.S. and Iran had reached an "in principle" agreement to extend negotiations past next week's April 7 ceasefire expiry.

The S&P 500 finished up 0.8% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.4%, both all-time highs, capping a two-week rally from late March lows.

Ether led major tokens, up 8.1% on the week to $2,360, extending the outperformance against bitcoin that emerged earlier this week. XRP gained 3.6% to $1.41, dogecoin rose 4.8% to $0.098, and solana added 2.2% to $85.

The equity rally is running ahead of what other markets are willing to confirm. Long-end Treasury yields barely moved. Gold held near $4,800. Brent crude ticked up to $95 as the U.S. pressed ahead with a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed.

"Stocks are basically expressing their view that the war in the Persian Gulf is all but over," Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, wrote in a note.

Crypto's derivatives desks aren't pricing the same conviction. QCP Capital wrote in a Telegram broadcast on Wednesday that bitcoin's rally is spot-led rather than part of a broader re-risking.

Funding rates on bitcoin perpetuals are still negative and open interest has softened, suggesting shorts are leaning against the move rather than capitulating. Front-end implied volatility remains muted, one-month vol is trading below three-month, and 30-day 25-delta risk reversals still show more demand for downside protection than upside exposure.

Put simply, options markets are pricing caution even as spot rallies. The cost of bitcoin options expiring in the next few weeks is unusually calm for a real breakout, and traders are still paying up for protection against a drop rather than betting on more upside. That's the signature of a bounce, not a trend change.

"Markets may be trading the ceasefire angle, but the core risk remains unresolved," QCP wrote. The firm pointed to the gap between Iran's 60% enriched uranium and the U.S. demand for below 20% as the structural issue a framework headline cannot close.

The ether outperformance is the one signal that can't be explained by bitcoin-specific flows.

The widely-watched ETH/BTC ratio - which tracks the price of ether against bitcoin - climbed to roughly 0.0315 on Wednesday, recovering from February's 2026 low near 0.028 and marking the first sustained stretch of ether strength against bitcoin in months.

Ethereum's on-chain fundamentals have been diverging from price for weeks, with network transactions hitting a record 200.4 million in Q1 and stablecoin supply reaching an all-time high of $180 billion.

Traders may watch the next risk-off session for cues. Ether holding up better than bitcoin on a red day would suggest the rotation into riskier assets is real, while a sharper slide would indicate ether was simply riding bitcoin's coattails with higher beta.

Traders are also watching whether the U.S.-Iran framework survives negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program ahead of next week's ceasefire expiry. QCP's read, that this is headline relief rather than resolution, is the one worth stress-testing first.

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The Nasdaq was higher for the 11th consecutive session as investors looked past the conflict in the Middle East.

What to know:

• Bitcoin has turned more positive but remains capped below $75,000, with repeated failures to break out from its two-month range.
• U.S. stocks, meanwhile, notched record highs with the Nasdaq logging an 11-day winning streak and the S&P 500 also setting a new peak.
• Crypto-related equities rallied alongside the broader risk-on...

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