The Lebanese army has accused Israel of violating a ceasefire with acts of aggression. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026 market is at 93.7% YES, while the June 30 market sits at 96.6% YES.
The Lebanese army’s report has traders reassessing the likelihood of sustained peace. The April 30 ceasefire odds are at 93.7% YES, up from 45% a week ago. Traders clearly expect the ceasefire to hold through the current tensions. The Israel military action in Greater Beirut market is at 100% for the specified dates.
Volume in the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire market is at $1,205,891 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours. It takes $50,093 to move the odds by 5 percentage points, which indicates strong conviction among participants. The largest recent movement was a 13-point spike, consistent with buying pressure from traders anticipating a formal ceasefire extension.
The accusations against Israel introduce fresh uncertainty, but the market still prices a ceasefire as highly likely. A YES share at 94¢ pays $1 if a ceasefire is confirmed by April 30, a 1.06x return. At that price, the market is treating current tensions as unlikely to derail the broader diplomatic process.
Traders should watch for statements from Netanyahu and Hezbollah’s leadership that could move odds. Any escalation in Israeli military action or renewed Hezbollah rocket attacks would directly affect ceasefire probabilities. Upcoming diplomatic talks and military developments in the region are the next catalysts.
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Israel Military Action Against Iran 167| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 21 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 96.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 93.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 1 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 5 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 9 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |