Israeli public sentiment is souring amid a US-Iran ceasefire, with despair rising and trust in leadership falling. The Iran military action by April 30 market sits at 100% YES.
Market reaction
The ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan, signals de-escalation in the Iran theater, but Israeli operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah continue. The Iran military action by April 30 market holds at 100%, meaning traders expect some form of Iranian action regardless of the ceasefire.
The Israeli military action against Iran by April 21 market dropped to 8% YES, down from 12% yesterday and 38% a week ago. That steep decline tracks the market pricing in a sustained ceasefire and diplomatic process, even as Israeli operations against Hezbollah persist.
Why it matters
The Iran military action by April 30 market has no recent trades, pointing to a stagnant consensus that some form of action is inevitable. The Israel military action by April 21 market, by contrast, has $8,677 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours, with traders actively repricing the probability downward.
What to watch
The ceasefire is a potential pivot point, but the broader conflict remains unresolved. A YES position in the Iran military action by April 30 market at 100¢ leaves no room for upside; any shift in odds would require concrete developments like new diplomatic engagements or a military escalation. Watch for Israeli government statements on Hezbollah operations and any movement in US-Iran diplomatic talks as April 30 approaches.
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Israel Military Action Against Iran 167| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 21 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
