Residents are returning to southern Lebanon amid celebrations following a 10-day ceasefire with Israel. The ceasefire, which started at midnight, has pushed the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market to 94% YES, up from 45% a week ago.
Market reaction
With only 14 days left until resolution, the April 30 odds have surged as traders price in the ceasefire holding. The June 30 market sits at 97% YES, pricing in a longer-term resolution.
The Israel suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30 market is now at 96% YES, up from 87% just 24 hours ago. The largest movement was a 28-point spike in the April 17 odds, meaning traders expect Israeli operations to remain paused in the short term.
Why it matters
The April 30 ceasefire sub-market has $1,041,878 in actual USDC traded. It takes $50,093 to move the odds by five points, which points to strong institutional involvement. The Lebanon offensive suspension market is thinner, with $25,577 needed to shift prices by five points, leaving it more exposed to volatility.
What to watch
The ceasefire is in effect but not a guarantee of lasting peace. At 6¢, a YES share for the April 30 ceasefire pays $1 if it resolves, a 16.7x return. That bet requires the ceasefire to hold for the next 14 days. Any violation or escalation could move these odds fast.
Watch for statements from Netanyahu and Hezbollah’s leadership. The next major checkpoint is whether Hezbollah agrees to withdrawal terms or whether new conditions emerge from Washington talks.
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Israel X Hezbollah Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 96.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 93.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 96.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 97.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 98.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 89.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 1 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 5 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 9 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
