Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, cleared the Senate Banking Committee with a 13-11 vote. Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14 now sits at 4.9% YES.
Market reaction
Warsh’s committee approval moved multiple markets. The May 15 market surged to 73.5% YES, up from 57% just a day ago, with a 15-point spike at 9:35 PM. The May 31 and June 30 markets sit at 96.2% and 99.4% YES, pricing in a near-certain leadership change before summer.
Why it matters
The committee vote is a necessary step, but the May 15 market is thinly traded. Daily USDC volume is $7,888, and just $507 moved the odds by 5 points. That means even small trades or minor news can produce large swings. The May 14 market at 4.9% YES prices a confirmation before that date as unlikely but possible.
What to watch
Buying YES at 74¢ on the May 15 market pays 1.35x if Warsh is confirmed and Powell exits by then. That bet requires a quick Senate floor vote and Powell stepping down early. Senate scheduling announcements and any public statements from Trump about the timeline are the next catalysts. A fast-tracked confirmation vote or Powell resignation would push these odds higher.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14 | 4.5% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31 | 96.4% | — | — | View market → |
| June 30 | 99.4% | — | — | View market → |
| May 15 | 73% | — | — | View market → |
