The Senate Banking Committee voted along party lines to advance Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair, moving him closer to replacing Jerome Powell. “Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?” is at 72% YES, up from 57% yesterday.
The party-line vote pushed the May 15 sub-market up 15 points last night, a clear signal that traders expect Warsh’s confirmation soon. The May 31 market is already at 96% YES, meaning traders see almost no chance Powell stays past the end of May.
Daily volume on the May 15 sub-market is at $7,888 in USDC, and it takes just $507 to move the odds five points. The market is active but thin enough that a single large trade can cause big swings. The largest recent move was that 15-point spike following the committee vote.
For traders, the committee advancing Warsh’s nomination on a party-line basis looks like a real political signal, not noise. At 28¢, a NO share on Powell remaining past May 15 pays $1, a potential 3.57x return. That bet depends entirely on whether the full Senate confirms Warsh before the deadline.
Watch for Senate floor scheduling and any statements from senators like Thom Tillis or Tim Scott, whose positions could determine the timeline for Warsh’s confirmation vote.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14 | 3.6% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31 | 96.1% | — | — | View market → |
| June 30 | 99.4% | — | — | View market → |
| May 15 | 70.5% | — | — | View market → |
