Iran has offered to allow ships to pass safely through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz, a potential step toward de-escalation with the United States. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 sits at 84.5% YES, down slightly from 78% yesterday.
Market reaction
The proposal directly affects the Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market, where odds are expected to rise by 25%. Iran’s offer signals intent to ease tensions, and the ceasefire extension market maintains a strong probability of resolution. The permanent peace deal market is at 15.5% YES. Combined 24-hour USDC volume is $479,872, with $9,232 required to move ceasefire odds by five points. The largest recent price move was an eight-point drop at 6:06 PM, showing how sensitive this market is to new information.
Why it matters
Allowing safe passage through the Omani side of the strait could lead to a gradual reopening of the waterway to normal traffic, with direct consequences for global oil and gas supply routes. The proposal is the first concrete Iranian offer on maritime access during the current round of tensions.
What to watch
Statements from CENTCOM, the Sultan of Oman, or announcements of new diplomatic meetings in the coming days will determine whether this offer translates into an actual agreement. A YES share in the ceasefire market at 76¢ is a direct bet on continued de-escalation.
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Us X Iran Ceasefire Extended| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 76.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 36.4% | — | — | Trade → |
