US oil executives have advised President Trump to reject Iran’s $2 million “Hormuz toll,” complicating hopes for diplomatic resolution. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian demands in April is at 38.5% YES, up from 28% a week ago.
The warning from oil executives signals strong domestic opposition to any concessions, which could reduce the likelihood of Trump meeting Iranian demands this month. The Trump agreement market saw a two-point drop earlier today but holds at 38.5% YES. With $1,975 in daily USDC volume, it takes just $279 to shift the odds by 5 points, meaning this is a thin market where sentiment can move fast.
The peace deal by April 22 market is at 26.5% YES. Traders appear to read the executive warning as a setback for near-term peace. This market trades $267,520 in daily USDC volume, and moving the odds requires $16,881, which reflects much greater depth and stronger trader conviction than the sanctions relief contract.
Resistance from US oil executives adds a concrete domestic obstacle to an already difficult negotiation. Buying a YES share at 38.5¢ pays $1 if Trump concedes by month-end, a potential 2.78x return. But with organized industry opposition, that bet depends on a significant diplomatic breakthrough happening within weeks.
Watch for changes in Trump’s stance, particularly through his Truth Social posts or official statements. A shift in language or policy could move these markets quickly. Also worth tracking: potential mediator involvement from Oman or Qatar, which could signal a path to negotiation.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 26.5% | — | — | Trade → |
