Trump expressed willingness to visit Pakistan to finalize a US-Iran deal. The permanent peace deal market for April 22, 2026, is at 28.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago.
Market reaction
Trump’s comment came during Islamabad-hosted negotiations and coincided with a sharp drop in the ceasefire breach market. The ceasefire announcement market sits at 9.0% YES, down from 33% a week ago. The April 30 peace deal market rose to 39.5% YES.
Why it matters
The biggest movement is in the June 30 market, now at 70.5% YES. The 21-point jump between the April 30 and May 31 contracts suggests traders expect a catalyst in late April or early May. Trump’s willingness to travel to Islamabad in person, rather than delegate, points to real momentum in the talks and raises Pakistan’s profile as a mediator.
What to watch
Real USDC volume across these markets is $711,138. The April 22 market requires $16,312 to move 5 points, and the largest single move was a 4-point spike at 12:18 AM. At 28.5¢, a YES position on an April 22 peace deal pays 6.9x if it resolves correctly.
Watch for official announcements from Islamabad, particularly involving Abbas Araghchi or US envoy Steve Witkoff. Any White House confirmation of Trump’s travel plans could move these markets fast.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 10% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 28.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 39.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 57% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 70.5% | — | — | Trade → |
