Gulf Arab and European leaders are advocating for a six-month peace deal between the US and Iran, urging an extension of the ceasefire. The US-Iran ceasefire market currently sits at 8% YES for an announcement by April 21, while the permanent peace deal by April 30 trades at 34.5% YES.
The market for a ceasefire by June 30 shows the most optimism at 63.5% YES. Traders appear to expect a catalyst in the coming months, possibly driven by these diplomatic efforts. The gap between the April and June contracts points to a clear confidence shift toward a longer-term resolution.
Daily face value on the ceasefire market is $2.54M, with actual USDC volume at $699K. It takes $16,401 to move odds by 5 points, which gives a sense of the market’s depth. The largest recent move was a 4-point drop, showing sensitivity to news flow.
The push for a six-month deal signals potential de-escalation, but the sourcing is speculative. At 32.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if a peace deal is struck by April 30, a 2.9x return. For this bet to pay off, substantial diplomatic progress must happen fast.
Watch for any signs of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and upcoming talks in Islamabad. Moves by Gulf states or intermediaries like Oman and Qatar could shift market odds quickly.
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Us X Iran Ceasefire Extended| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 32.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 49% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 63.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
