Germany’s Merz stated that the Strait of Hormuz is partially mined. The market for 80 ships transiting by April 30 is at 1% YES, down from 4% yesterday.
The announcement has traders pricing in increased navigational hazards. Odds for UK warships transiting the Strait by April 30 dropped to 1% YES, from 2% a day ago. With only six days left, both markets point toward minimal shipping and military transit through the Strait.
Trade volume is thin: only $449 in USDC traded daily for the ships transit market. It takes $542 to move the odds by 5 percentage points, so even small trades have outsized effects on pricing. The largest single price move in the last 24 hours was a 3-point drop, likely triggered by Merz’s statement.
Confirmed partial mining makes any significant increase in ship transit unlikely before the deadline. With odds at 1% for 80 ships transiting by April 30, traders are betting on continued disruption. Buying YES at 1¢ offers a potential 100x return, but that would require rapid de-escalation and mine-clearing operations within days.
Watch for announcements from U.S. Central Command and any changes in mine-clearing operations. Admiral Brad Cooper’s next update could clarify the timeline for securing safe passage through the Strait.
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Will Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz On Any Day End Of April| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
