Trump’s aggressive tariff policies are making a China visit look less likely. The market for Trump visiting China by May 31 is at 76% YES, down from 88% a week ago.
The April 30 contract is effectively dead at 0.1% YES. The May 31 market jumped 76 points from April, which suggests traders are pricing in a possible mid-May catalyst. The June 30 odds sit at 84.5% YES, so traders still expect a diplomatic meeting eventually, just not soon.
USDC volume over the past 24 hours totaled $54,216, with May 31 the most active contract. The market showed a 3-point spike at midnight, likely from a single large order. Moving the market five percentage points costs between $4,967 and $7,681, meaning the order book has some depth but remains vulnerable to big trades.
The falling odds track with the administration’s trade stance, which makes diplomatic scheduling harder. A YES bet at 76¢ requires believing a visit happens within weeks despite current tensions, for a 1.32x return. The clearest catalyst would be an official announcement from the White House or Chinese Foreign Ministry confirming travel dates.
Watch for Karoline Leavitt’s next press briefing or any U.S. State Department updates on Trump’s travel plans. A confirmed itinerary to China would move this market fast.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 76.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 84.5% | — | — | Trade → |