China has called the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz “reckless and provocative.” The odds of President Trump announcing a lift of the blockade by May 31, 2026, sit at 82% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago.
Following China’s condemnation, traders may reassess the probability of an imminent lift. The April 19 market is at 17.5% YES, down from 28% after a 6-point drop, showing skepticism about a quick resolution. The April 17 market shows even lower confidence at 8.5% YES.
The blockade market is active, with $33,260 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours. It takes $3,730 to move the May 31 odds 5 points, suggesting reasonable depth. The biggest recent move was a 2-point spike at 2:38 AM, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions.
China’s opposition points to a harder path toward lifting the blockade. Traders betting on a rapid resolution may need to adjust expectations. A YES share for the April 17 market is priced at 9¢, offering a potential 11x return if resolved YES.
Watch for statements from the White House or the Pentagon. High-level diplomatic movements or a shift in rhetoric from Trump could signal changes in the blockade’s status.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | 82% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17, 2026 | 9% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19, 2026 | 16% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
