CENTCOM reports turning back 27 commercial vessels since the blockade began on April 13. The market for fewer than 10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-19 sits at 0.4% YES.
The Strait of Hormuz transit market is priced at 0.4% YES with one day left until resolution. The market saw a 2-point spike around 4:25 AM, but actual trading volume was just $14 against a face value of $2,923. Liquidity is thin: only $12 is needed to move the market 5 points, meaning a single order could easily shift the odds.
The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by June market is effectively dead. With 27 vessels already redirected and the blockade still in force, there are no recent trades or notable shifts in odds.
The 27-vessel redirection count confirms the blockade is actively disrupting maritime traffic at scale, not just threatening it. At 0.4% YES for fewer than 10 ship transits, traders buying at 0.4¢ would see a 250x return on a positive resolution. But with the market resolving tomorrow and ships still being turned back, the bearish stance on traffic normalization tracks with what CENTCOM is reporting. The sub-10 transit outcome would require near-total cessation of all passage, which the redirection numbers don’t support.
Watch for changes in CENTCOM’s enforcement posture, any diplomatic signals suggesting an easing of the blockade, and shipping reports or IRGC responses that could move either market before resolution.
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How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 13 19| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 1.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 14.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 12.5% | — | — | Trade → |
