President Trump announced Iran is losing $500 million per day because of the US naval blockade. The market on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 has dropped to 36.9% YES, down from 50% just a day ago.
Traders are reading Trump’s statement as an escalation of pressure on Iran, making a quick diplomatic resolution less likely. The uranium enrichment market is at 27.8% YES, after falling sharply over the past 24 hours. With 12 days left, the move is bearish for those betting on a breakthrough. The Trump Hormuz blockade market is at 85.5% YES for a May 31 resolution, down from 90% yesterday, as traders grow more skeptical about a near-term lifting of the blockade.
The WTI Crude Oil market is relatively unchanged at 1.4% YES for hitting $160 in April. Traders aren’t pricing in a dramatic oil price surge despite the blockade.
Trump’s $500 million daily loss claim exceeds analyst estimates and points to severe economic pressure on Iran. This non-kinetic approach could make Iran less willing to offer concessions, raising the probability of prolonged tensions. At 27.8¢, a YES bet on Iran ending enrichment pays 3.6x, but that requires a diplomatic breakthrough within 12 days.
Watch for statements from Iranian leadership, shifts in US policy, Trump’s public comments, or changes in naval deployment. Any of these could move the markets quickly.
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Iran Agrees To End Enrichment Of Uranium April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 36.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 85.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 1.2% | — | — | Trade → |
