Strategy Inc.’s STRC perpetual preferred stock has driven the purchase of 77,000 BTC in 2026, dwarfing spot Bitcoin ETF inflows. The market for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 by April 30 sits at 15% YES.
The STRC-fueled buying has traders adjusting expectations for Bitcoin price predictions in April 2026. With Strategy’s institutional demand outweighing ETF activity, the market prices only a 15% chance of Bitcoin falling to $60,000. Strategy’s 77,000 BTC acquisition in 2026 alone signals heavy institutional accumulation that has kept bearish bets suppressed.
The April 30 sub-markets have 12 days until resolution. The spread reflects uncertainty, and the term structure suggests traders expect volatility tied to macroeconomic factors. Strategy’s massive BTC holdings could create a price floor that limits downside, even as geopolitical tensions persist.
Trading volume is thin. The market has seen no trades in the past 24 hours, meaning a single substantial order could easily move current odds. Order book depth and liquidity are the main indicators to track for stability in this environment.
A YES share at 15¢ pays $1 if Bitcoin hits $60,000 by April 30, a 6.67x return. Strategy’s continued buying provides a counterweight to geopolitical risk, though an escalation in tensions could change the calculus quickly.
Watch for updates on Strategy Inc.’s purchasing activity and shifts in ETF flows. Jerome Powell’s next statements on monetary policy could also move the market.
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Bitcoin Price On April 16| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 16 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
