Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Lauren Boebert have jointly demanded greater accountability for sexual misconduct in Congress following the resignations of Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales. The Polymarket contract on Eric Swalwell’s status by May 31 sits at 100% YES, confirming his departure.
## Market reaction
The Swalwell market at 100% YES has no trading volume, as traders see no potential for reversal. The market for Tony Gonzales being out by May 31 is a different story. Gonzales resigned amid misconduct allegations, which increases the probability of resolution before the deadline. With 45 days left until May 31, this market remains active but has seen no volume so far. Odds are likely to shift if the House Ethics Committee releases findings against him or if the Texas Governor announces a special election.
## Why it matters
The bipartisan nature of the AOC-Boebert push is unusual and adds real pressure for institutional follow-through. Past settlements and ongoing ethics probes are feeding demands for transparency, and any resulting reforms or committee actions could affect other related markets. The contrast between the two contracts is stark: Swalwell is a settled question, while the Gonzales situation still has room for volatility.
## What to watch
Statements from Speaker Mike Johnson and the House Ethics Committee are the primary catalysts. Any confirmation of Gonzales’ official departure or a scheduled floor vote could drive market activity and move odds. A YES share in the Gonzales market could return significantly if these events materialize within the 45-day window.
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