Trump declared a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and suggested a deal with Iran is close. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market is at 24.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago.
Market reaction
The April 30 sub-market doubled to 41.5% YES from 17% a week ago. The May 31 market jumped to 55%, up from 31%. The June 30 contract sits at 69% YES.
Volume hit $711,138 in USDC across these markets in the last 24 hours. The May 31 market saw the largest price move, a 10-point drop, which points to lingering skepticism even after the ceasefire news. It would take $16,312 to shift the April 22 odds by 5 points, a relatively thick order book.
Why it matters
The ceasefire announcement touches on key resolution criteria for a permanent peace deal, including nuclear commitments. But no formal agreement exists yet. At 15¢, a YES on April 22 pays $1 on resolution, a 6.67x return if a deal is confirmed within six days. That payout requires extraordinarily fast diplomatic progress.
What to watch
A formal statement from Trump or Iranian leadership, particularly any confirmation of nuclear site dismantlement or sanctions relief, would be the clearest catalyst for further movement in these contracts.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 24.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 41.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 55.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 69% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |