The USS Gerald R. Ford’s 300+ day deployment, which included capturing Venezuela’s President and conducting strikes in Iran, confirms U.S. military actions in 2026. The odds for “US strikes 0 countries in 2026” are effectively dead, with the market set to resolve NO.
U.S. military actions in two countries, Venezuela and Iran, directly settle the US Military Actions in 2026 market, which asked whether the U.S. would strike zero countries. With the deployment details public, a NO resolution is locked in. The market was already inactive with no new trades recorded, indicating complete consensus on the outcome.
The U.S. Forces Seizing Oil Tankers market remains active at 99.9% YES. Traders expect further tanker seizures, likely driven by the report of five seizures during the Ford’s deployment. Daily volume sits at $2.36M in actual USDC, pointing to strong conviction in continued operations.
The confirmation of strikes in both Venezuela and Iran removes any remaining ambiguity from the military actions market. For traders holding YES positions on the tanker seizure market, buying YES at 99.9¢ offers a slim but near-certain return.
Traders should watch for official Pentagon briefings or statements from Trump or Hegseth. Any new military operations or strategic shifts could open further trading opportunities.
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Us Forces Seize Another Oil Tanker April 15| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
