Israel breached the Gaza ceasefire more than 2,400 times in six months, putting the truce’s stability in doubt. The Netanyahu out by June 30 market now sits at 6% YES, ticking up as traders weigh whether sustained violations could trigger political consequences for Netanyahu before 2026.
## Market reaction
Two markets moved on this news. The Netanyahu out by June 30 contract edged up to 6% YES, while the Netanyahu out by April 30 contract remains at 0% YES.
The Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026 market fell to 1% YES, down from 3% yesterday. The June 30 contract dropped to 10% YES.
## Why it matters
The volume of ceasefire violations, over 2,400 in six months, makes a near-term Israel-Iran peace deal far less plausible, which the April 30 peace contract’s collapse from 3% to 1% in a single day reflects. The Netanyahu tenure market is moving more slowly because ceasefire violations alone don’t directly threaten his coalition.
## What to watch
The Netanyahu tenure market trades $1,762 in USDC daily, with $9,495 needed to move the June 30 contract 5 points. The largest move over the past day was a 1-point drop. The Israel-Iran peace deal market is thinner at $1,216 in daily volume, with $1,689 required to shift the June 30 odds 5 points. A 2-point drop occurred at 2:26 PM.
A YES bet on Netanyahu stepping down by June 30 pays 16.67x, but requires a political shake-up within 67 days. The specific triggers to monitor: coalition defections, new legal proceedings against Netanyahu, or an escalation that forces early elections.
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Netanyahu Out Before 2027| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
