The US Treasury Department has imposed fresh sanctions on suppliers of weapons to Iran. The market on Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sits at 27% YES, up from 36% a day ago.
The sanctions target suppliers involved with Iran’s ballistic missile and UAV programs, primarily affecting networks in Iran, Türkiye, and the UAE. This is part of the ongoing “maximum pressure” campaign and cuts against the possibility that Trump will concede to Iranian demands for oil sanction relief. The market for a diplomatic US-Iran meeting by June 30 is at 3.4% YES.
Daily USDC volume in the Trump agreement market is $4,106, with just $387 required to move the odds by 5 percentage points. The largest recent move was a 10-point spike in YES shares at 2:39 PM. The thin liquidity means even modest trades can produce outsized price swings.
New sanctions signal a hardening US stance and reduce the probability of a diplomatic breakthrough before April ends. For traders watching the Trump agreement market, a YES share priced at 27¢ pays $1 if Trump agrees to sanction relief by April, a potential 2.33x return. The fresh sanctions make meaningful concessions within that window less likely.
Watch for any statements from Trump or the Treasury indicating a policy shift. Any reversal in tone could move this thinly traded market sharply before the end of April.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 27% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 3.8% | — | — | Trade → |
