Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir thanked President Trump for extending the US-Iran ceasefire. The market for a cessation of military operations by April 30 is at 21.5% YES, down from 32% yesterday.
Pakistan’s expression of gratitude suggested diplomatic progress and pushed odds higher earlier, but the move didn’t hold. The ceasefire extension has not been formally confirmed, though it fits with expectations for a deal-making window. The April 30 market saw a 5-point spike at 6:59 PM yesterday, but optimism faded as traders reassessed.
Nine days remain until resolution. Traders are weighing Pakistan’s mediation role against the absence of a formal ceasefire extension. The current price reflects tempered enthusiasm given no explicit commitment from Iran. Volume sits at $68,607 in USDC, and $4,074 is enough to move the price by 5 points, making the market sensitive to larger trades.
Pakistan’s involvement is a bullish signal, but without formal agreements the market stays cautious. At 22¢, a YES share pays $1 if operations end by April 30, a 4.5x return. Traders would need concrete evidence of a deal to justify this bet: an intermediary setting a talks date or an envoy appointment.
Watch for Vice President Vance’s negotiations and any statements from CENTCOM or the IRGC. A formal ceasefire announcement or a specific diplomatic commitment would move the odds sharply.
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