A senior Israeli official says the US plans to take a more active role in disarming Hezbollah in Lebanon. The market for an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30 sits at 100% YES.
Both the April 30 and April 19 diplomatic meeting markets are locked at 100% YES. The market for Israel suspending its Lebanon offensive by April 30 jumped to 99.9% YES, up from 87% yesterday. Traders are pricing in a higher likelihood of de-escalation.
The suspension market saw $339,785 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours. The largest move was a 9-point spike at 1:17 PM, likely tied to the US diplomatic news. Order book depth shows it takes $25,577 to move the price 5 points, a relatively liquid market.
The US taking a direct role in Hezbollah disarmament could accelerate normalization between Israel and Lebanon. At current levels, buying YES on Israel suspending its offensive offers limited upside, but the odds at 96.2% reflect strong trader confidence that a suspension is coming.
Watch for formal US announcements and official Israeli statements on military operations in Lebanon. The next update from the US-chaired ceasefire committee could move the suspension market in either direction.
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Israel X Lebanon Diplomatic Meeting| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |