Pakistan announced that no date is set for the next round of US-Iran talks. The ceasefire by April 22 market is at 21.5% YES.
## Market reaction
The lack of a scheduled second round has introduced uncertainty. The April 21 ceasefire end market sits at 10.5% YES, unchanged. The April 30 market is at 40.5% YES, and the May 31 odds are higher at 56.5% YES. Traders clearly expect more time is needed for any resolution.
Combined volume across US-Iran ceasefire markets is $699,190 in USDC daily. The largest single move was a 10-point drop on May 31 odds. Market depth shows it would take $16,401 to move the April 22 odds by 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity.
## Why it matters
The absence of a scheduled date doesn’t signal a breakdown, but it slows momentum. Pakistan is mediating between the two sides, and without a concrete date for the next round, the diplomatic timeline stretches. The gap between April 30 odds (34.5%) and May 31 odds (56.5%) shows traders pricing in a drawn-out process rather than a quick deal.
## What to watch
Statements from Pakistani intermediaries or any surprise scheduling of talks would likely move these odds fast. Trump’s rhetoric and any military developments between the US and Iran are the other main drivers.
## Trade the odds
At 21.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if a peace deal is announced by April 22, a 6.67x return. The question is whether diplomatic efforts can accelerate enough to hit that deadline with no talks even scheduled.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Us X Iran Ceasefire Extended| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 21.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 40.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 54.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 69.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
