A U.S. team led by JD Vance is heading to Pakistan for Iran talks, with Trump demanding nuclear disarmament. The ceasefire-by-April-21 market sits at 13% YES, up from 6% yesterday.
Market reaction
A 5-point spike at 11:03 AM pushed odds from 12% to 18% before settling. The April 21 market is pricing in potential escalation if talks falter.
The permanent peace deal by April 22 market dropped hard, now at 19.5% YES from 40% yesterday. Trump’s firm demands on nuclear abandonment make a comprehensive agreement less likely on that timeline. The April 30 market also fell, sitting at 41.5% YES.
Why it matters
Iran’s participation in the talks remains unconfirmed. Daily volume on these markets is $7,248 in USDC, and the order book is thin: just $880 can move the ceasefire odds 5 points. That means even moderate trades swing this market significantly.
What to watch
A YES share in the ceasefire market at 13¢ pays 6.25x if Trump announces an end, but this bet depends on the talks collapsing within 3 days. Watch for statements from Trump or Vance, particularly any indication of meeting Iranian leaders or concessions on either side.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 13% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 21% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 41.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 61.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 70.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 3.2% | — | — | Trade → |
