The U.S. Space Force participated in Operation Epic Fury, the joint U.S.-Israel campaign targeting Iran’s military infrastructure. The Polymarket contract on Trump announcing an end to military operations against Iran by March 1 sits at 0% YES, with no trades in the last 24 hours.
Market reaction
The market has not moved. The contract remains at 0% YES with zero volume over the past 24 hours. There is no buying interest on either side.
Why it matters
The Space Force’s involvement included satellite tracking, electronic warfare, and targeting support, a new level of integration for the branch in active combat operations. According to reported figures, the campaign degraded Iranian missile capabilities by 90% and supported over 1,700 strikes in 72 hours. These numbers point to operations intensifying, not approaching conclusion, which is consistent with the contract pricing a March 1 end date at zero.
What to watch
The absence of a formal U.S. declaration of war, combined with active and expanding military operations, makes any bet on an early end to the campaign extremely speculative. Buying YES at 0¢ offers a theoretical payout only if operations unexpectedly conclude by March 1. Watch for official statements from the Pentagon and CENTCOM briefings. Any signal of de-escalation or changed operational language would be the first indicator of movement in this contract.
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Gulf State Military Action Against Iran| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
