US-Israeli strikes have left up to 20 Iranian aircraft seriously damaged, while most airport infrastructure remains intact. The odds of Israel conducting military action against Iran by April 21 are now at 14.4% YES, up from 4% yesterday.
The strikes are part of ongoing US-Israel operations targeting Iranian military capabilities. The April 21 market jumped 7 points after the news broke. This is the latest in a series of military actions as the conflict enters its eighth week. With three days left on this contract, traders are weighing the likelihood of further escalation.
In the broader market for Iranian military actions, the odds of Iran striking Israel or other countries by April 30 sit at 100% YES. Traders appear fully convinced Iran will retaliate, likely based on a combination of expected retaliatory actions and pre-existing military commitments across the region.
The Iran-Israel conflict trades with a face value of $84,332 per day, but only $5,742 in actual USDC changes hands. Just $709 can move the odds five points, making this a thin market vulnerable to swings from even moderate trades. The largest recent move was the 7-point spike at 11:31 AM, likely triggered by a single large order.
The damage to Iranian aircraft is real but limited. Airport infrastructure is largely operational, which points to a strategy of degrading Iran’s military logistics rather than hitting civilian targets. A YES share at 14¢ offers a 7.1x return if resolved YES, a bet on continued military engagement within three days.
Watch for statements from Israeli and Iranian military leaders over the next week, along with any new strikes or retaliatory actions. Movements by Majid Khademi and Asghar Bagheri could signal shifts in military strategy or escalation.
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Israel Military Action Against Iran 167| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 13.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
