The US Senate blocked resolutions to stop a $450 million arms sale to Israel. The market on Trump announcing a US-Iran ceasefire breach by April 21 is at 11.5% YES, down from 62% a week ago.
The Senate vote keeps US military aid to Israel flowing during heightened tensions with Iran. The sale includes bombs and military equipment used in Israeli operations against Iranian proxies. Odds for Trump announcing a ceasefire breach by April 21 sit at 11.5%, a sharp drop from last week’s 62%.
On the diplomatic side, the market for no US-Iran meeting by June 30 is at 2.3% YES. Continued US arms sales suggest a hardline posture that works against near-term diplomatic engagement. The Iranian demands market remains inactive, with no sign traders expect Trump to concede to Iranian demands by April.
The ceasefire breach market trades $2,291 daily in USDC, with $2,889 needed to shift the price 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest recent move was a 2-point drop. The diplomatic meeting market is much thinner at $283/day, requiring only $404 to move it 5 points.
The Senate vote is a signal, not a resolution, but it fits a consistent pattern of US support for Israel that raises regional tension. Buying YES at 12¢ pays $1 if Trump declares the ceasefire broken by April 21, an 8.3x return. That bet requires believing a breach will be declared within five days.
Watch for statements from Trump or the White House Press Secretary on ceasefire status. Pentagon briefings or IRGC actions could also move these odds.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 11.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 2.3% | — | — | Trade → |
