The US-sanctioned tanker Rich Starry has re-entered the Strait of Hormuz after failing to pass through a US blockade. The likelihood of US Navy escorts for commercial ships through Hormuz by April 30 is now at 21.5% YES, up from 20% yesterday.
Market reaction
The April 15 market is effectively dead at 1.8% with its closure imminent. The April 30 market shows a 20-point gap between the two deadlines, which suggests traders expect a specific trigger event in that window. Combined trading volume across these markets hit $7,669 in USDC over the last 24 hours. The April 30 market’s depth shows it takes $2,903 to move the price five points, a moderately liquid book that could shift on a few strategic trades.
Why it matters
The Rich Starry’s return exposes the difficulty of enforcing the blockade without direct confrontation. If the US cannot stop a sanctioned vessel from re-entering the strait, the pressure to authorize Navy escorts for compliant commercial ships increases. Any escalation from Iran or its proxies in the strait would push odds higher.
What to watch
Statements from the Pentagon or CENTCOM, and any Iranian military moves near the strait, are the most likely catalysts. Either could move the April 30 market quickly.
At 21.5%, buying YES at 22¢ offers a potential 4.5x return if escorts commence. That bet requires a meaningful US policy shift or a spike in regional instability to pay off.
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Us Escorts Commercial Ship Through Hormuz March 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 22.5% | +1¢ | $18K | Trade → |
| April 15 | 0.3% | -1.5¢ | $27K | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 9.5% | +1¢ | $28K | Trade → |