Trump announced U.S. representatives are traveling to Islamabad for negotiations. The odds of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire being extended by April 21 are at 71% YES, down from 86% yesterday.
Market reaction
The ceasefire extension market sits at 71% YES with three days left. Odds dropped as low as 61% earlier today. Vice President JD Vance and Jared Kushner are among the delegation members, and traders are pricing in whether their presence changes the likelihood of a deal before the April 21 deadline. The market saw $82,767 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours, with a 4-point drop at 11:09 AM. Order book depth shows it would take $9,463 to move the price 5 percentage points, meaning the market requires substantial trades to shift.
Why it matters
Three days remain before the ceasefire expires, and unresolved issues include Iran’s nuclear program and the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The diplomatic push is aimed at securing a framework agreement that would prevent immediate escalation. A YES share at 71¢ pays 1.56x if the ceasefire is extended. A successful outcome depends on rapid progress in negotiations within that window.
What to watch
Traders should track announcements from the U.S. delegation and statements from Pakistani mediators. Confirmation of an agreement or a shift in diplomatic language could move odds quickly. Vice President Vance’s public comments and any Trump posts on social media are the most direct signals of where talks stand.
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Iran Agrees To Surrender Enriched Uranium Stockpile| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 36% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 63.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 52% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 71% | — | — | Trade → |
