The U.S. Navy has turned back 10 Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, enforcing a blockade amid Iran’s threats to disrupt Persian Gulf shipping. The market for Trump announcing the blockade is lifted by April 17 is at 9% YES, down from 8% yesterday.
## Market reaction
The May 31 announcement market is at 83% YES, creating a wide gap with the near-term contracts. April 19 is at 15% YES. Traders are pricing in no immediate resolution but expect the blockade to end sometime before late May.
Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30 is at 6% YES. The UK sending warships through the Strait by April 30 is also at 6% YES, consistent with expectations of continued disruption.
## Why it matters
USDC volume across the blockade lifting markets was $28,673 in the last 24 hours. It takes $1,423 to move the May odds by 5 points, meaning the book is liquid enough for larger players to enter without massive slippage. The largest price move was a 4-point spike in April 17’s odds at 4:42 PM.
Iran’s retaliatory threats continue, and without a diplomatic breakthrough, the market sees little chance of near-term de-escalation. At 6¢, a YES share on the April 17 contract pays $1 if the blockade lifts, a 16.67x return. Possible US-Iran weekend talks have been floated, but no concrete progress has materialized, keeping odds low.
## What to watch
Trump’s tone in upcoming press briefings and any new US-Iran negotiation announcements, particularly involving Oman or Qatar as intermediaries, could move these contracts quickly.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 82.5% | -0.5¢ | $8K | Trade → |
| April 17 | 12% | +5.5¢ | $105K | Trade → |
| April 19 | 22.5% | +7.5¢ | $49K | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 5.5% | -1¢ | $25K | Trade → |
